Prognosis

The majority of patients (around 80%) with acute pancreatitis have mild disease and will improve within 3 to 7 days of conservative management. The overall mortality rate is low (approximately 5%) but this rises to 25% to 30% in severe acute pancreatitis (1)

One study found that progression to chronic pancreatitis occurred in only 6% of patients and this was normally against a background of recurrent attacks, alcohol or smoking. (2,3)

Reference:

1. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Pancreatitis. December 2020 [internet publication]
2. Yadav D, O'Connell M, Papachristou GI; Natural history following the first attack of acute pancreatitis. Am J Gastroenterol. 2012 Jul;107(7):1096-103.
3. Sankaran SJ, Xiao AY, Wu LM, et al. Frequency of progression from acute to chronic pancreatitis and risk factors: a meta-analysis. Gastroenterology. 2015 Nov;149(6):1490-500.