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Predictors of progression

Authoring team

Prospective studies on cohorts of homosexual men and haemophiliacs in developed countries have revealed the following predictors of progression to AIDS.

  • CD4+ve counts
    • CD4+ >500 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio >0.63 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 1:12
    • CD4+ < 250 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio < 0.3 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 2:3
  • oral thrush double the chance of progression
  • serum HIV p24 antigen also increases the chance of developing AIDS

The rate of progression is similar in both sexes and pregnancy does not increase the rate of progression.

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